This year’s seasonal rise in the rate of new cases has been continuing to rise, but remains modestly lower than last year’s November peak. In this week’s composite chart, I have replaced the now-misleading (thanks to the Ford Government) Canada wastewater COVID testing results graph with provincial pandemic-severity comparisons compiled by statisticians at the non-governmental COVID-19 Resources Canada.
The COVID test positivity, hospitalization and ICU occupancy graphs continue to show the same gradual rise in Ontario new cases which, since the summer low, have all roughly doubled.
The most Public Health Canada report on the spread of COVID variants confirms, like the US numbers which I reported last week, that the currently-dominant KP3.1.1 is losing “market share” to new recombinant XEC strain which is highlighted in yellow. XEC is now in second place in both the US and Canada, its Canadian incidence having quadrupled to more than 22% over the past six weeks. If current trends continue, it would achieve dominance sometime in December. The good news is that that this season’s free booster shot, which now readily available from Ontario pharmacies, will likely be effective in providing significantly improved immunity to XEC.