This is again the off-week during which, apart from Public Health Ontario, none of my usual COVID statistical data sources have been reporting. That includes the more independent statisticians at COVID-19 Resources Canada. I have substituted for their national chart the Canada Public Health data on municipal wastewater testing despite its limitations (two weeks old, applies only to larger municipalities and the Ontario portion is Toronto-only).
The main piece of information contained in this week’s composite chart is confirmation that the seasonal August and September surge in new Ontario COVID infections peaked in mid-September and is now unmistakably dropping. That statistic is the best remaining indication of the current state of the pandemic. Ontario hospital admission tends to lag by a week or two and ICU bed occupancy by another week. Both have peaked and started to decline. at roughly 60% of last year’s number and has since plateaued. COVID hospitalization rates have started to follow suit and I would expect ICU bed occupancy to shortly do the same.
While the COVID-19 Resources Canada estimate of the proportion of Ontarians who currently have active COVID infections hasn’t been updated, it worth reiterating that, as of last week, it was one in 63 people. That has likely moderated at least slightly since then.