Official statistics published over the past two weeks provide fairly conclusive evidence for this past fall and winter’s strong seasonal surge in new COVID infections having finally receded.
For Ontario, that improvement is best illustrated by the municipal wastewater PCR viral counts in this week’s composite chart, which are now estimated to be significantly lower than at this time last year. The decline in Ontario PCR test positivity rates now appears to be flattening but, likewise, at a lower level than last year. The overall Canadian rate of COVID hospitalizations and ICU bed occupancy are also continuing to drop, albeit at a more modest rate.
The more independent COVID-19 Resources Canada Hazard Index reflects that good news, estimating that one in every 178 Ontarians are currently infected and hence infectious. That is markedly lower than their previous estimate of one in 52.
The most recent Public Health Canada data on the spread of new COVID variants continues to show the utter dominance of the BA.2-derived JN.1 lineage, which accounts for nearly 97% of all new infections. JN.1 itself peaked six weeks ago and now accounts for only 35% of new infections. That decline is due to the higher infectiousness of its progeny, including JN.4 (22%), JN.1.11.1 (21%) and JN.1.7 (11%). The fastest-spreading strain and therefore the most likely successor to JN.1 is currently JN.1.11.1 which has soared by a factor of 46 times over those same 6 weeks.