The official COVID-related data published this past week once again continued to improve, falling below the comparable number from last year at this time and, more significantly, as yet showing no signs of that drop levelling off. The most likely explanation is far fewer infections of and from Canadians travelling to and from the USA in protest against as well as personal safety concerns stemming from President Trump’s bizarre attacks on Canada and Canadians.
That trend is best exemplified by PCR test positivity rates, which constitute of our best remaining leading indicator for Ontario COVID infections. That rate is already well below last year’s and appears to be continuing its sharp decline. COVID hospitalization rates and ICU occupancy are now both slightly lower than those of late March in 2024.
The more independent Canadian COVID-19 Resource Canada national severity index for the second half of March again fell from the estimate which they had published last week. Ontario’s remains the highest amongst the provinces. Their estimate of one currently-infected and hence infectious Ontarian among every 112 people was not updated.
The striking and virtually unprecedented divergence between the relative incidence of the currently-circulating COVID strains in Canada and the USA has, if anything, widened in the past week’s data. In Canada, while the recombinant XEC is narrowly holding on to its dominance, it now accounts for only 26% of new cases. That is only slightly greater than surprisingly-resurgent JN.1, which is the parent strain of all those currently circulating. In the US, by contrast, the new LP.8.1 strain has soared to 55%, with the previously-dominant XEC in second place at 21.%. LP.8.1 accounts for less than 3% of Canadian infections, and has been falling. It’s like Canadians successfully slapped a 90% tariff on US COVID virus imports. Vive la difference!