The most recent official COVID statistics paint something of a mixed picture in terms of whether of not the decline in new infections following this past winter’s severe seasonal spike is continuing or plateauing. 

The most-recent two-week estimate of Ontario municipal wastewater PCR viral counts in this week’s composite chart continues to show a moderating decline. Ontario PCR test positivity rates, however, jumped significantly higher in the most recent statistics, especially in Kingston where the wastewater viral counts also jumped. The overall Canadian rates of COVID hospitalizations and ICU bed occupancy have definitely plateaued, but at significantly lower levels than last year at this time. 

The more independent COVID-19 Resources Canada Hazard Index estimates that one in every 48 Ontarians is currently infected and therefore infectious. That is slightly worse than their previous estimate of one in 52. 

The most recent Public Health Canada data on the spread of new COVID variants show the continuing dominance of the JN.1 lineage, which now accounts for just over 94% of all new Canadian cases. That is down slightly from 97% two weeks ago. JN.1 itself has over the past month fallen to 61% from its peak of 65%. The fastest-growing strain is now JN1.4, which now accounts for 27% of new infections, up from 21% a month ago. Interestingly, the third-most-common is the “other” category, which suggests the stage may be being set for an entirely new variant, perhaps from outside the JN.1 family, to emerge better equipped to evade existing human immunity and thereby rapidly shoot to dominance just like JN.1 did late last year.