The most recent statistical evidence overwhelmingly points to the expected seasonal surge in new COVID infections being both earlier and significantly worse than last year’s. The question is how we should individually and collectively respond to that reality. 

Referring to the most recent official statistical data illustrated in our composite chart, the rapid acceleration in the two-week estimate for COVID viral counts in Ontario municipal wastewater PCR test results started early this month at twice last year’s levels, and has already reached levels comparable to early November of 2023. Positive PCR positive test results are likewise twice last year’s, having more than doubled since the April low. Similarly, COVID hospitalizations and ICU admissions. My own community of Kingston is doing worse, with positive PCR tests having tripled and COVID hospitalizations already at their highest of the past year. 

The two-week estimate by the more independent COVID-19 Resources Canada statisticians of the number of Ontarians currently battling COVID bouts and therefore being infectious won’t be updated until next week, but two weeks ago showed in every 76 people compared to less than one in 100 a month or so ago. I’m assuming that their next update will be considerably worse. 

Turning to the latest Public Health Canada data on circulating COVID variants, the JN.1 family of Omicron variants continues to account for virtually all new Canadian infections. It’s KP branch alone is responsible for 80% of them, with KP.3.1.1 having most recently taken the lead with 34%. One likely explanation for the surge in new cases this early in the season is that the mutations spawning the KP branch quite simply render them more capable of evading the COVID immunity which more Canadians have developed through some combination of vaccinations and prior infection. The other obvious explanation is that immunity declines significantly after six months, and too few of us are still bothering to get our free booster shots. COVID’s impacts on our bodies are often far worse than a typical flu. Look what it did to Joe Biden, who probably benefits from the best of all possible medical care.

Yesterday, I saw encouraging signs of awareness of the renewed threat. Going to a medical test appointment, masks were provided and everyone was required to don them on entry. Stopping at a supermarket on the way home, the cashier was masked. I have now resumed my habit of wearing my well-fitting N95 mask in all crowded indoor public spaces. I’m hopeful that boosters specifically formulated against the dominant JN.1 family will be available by the time I again qualify in the early Fall.