The most recent week’s worth of official COVID-related data reinforces the promising conclusion that we have passed the seasonal peak of COVID infections and can hopefully look forward to a declining rate of new infections over the coming months.
As you can see from this week’s composite chart, Ontario’s PCR COVID test positivity rate has now declined from its holiday peak for three consecutive weeks. Our current rate is very similar to last year at this time. New COVID-related hospitalizations and ICU bed occupancy are likewise sharply down over that same three-week period.
Lest we start feeling complacent, analysis reported by the statisticians behind the more independent Canadian COVID-19 forecast point to Ontarians’ risk of COVID infection current being higher than any other province. Their estimate of one in every 53 Ontarians currently being infected and therefore infections is unchanged from last week. As one who has yet to experience a COVID infection, that remains sufficiently high to motivate me to continue wearing my N95 mask in crowded supermarkets and other indoor public venues.
The most recent Public Health Agency of Canada analysis of currently circulating COVID variants once again shows relatively little change from the previous week. The Canadian “market share” of the still-dominant recombinant XEC strain is now, after three weeks of moderate decline, less than 32%. While each still less than 10%, the newer LP.8.1.1 strain has quadrupled over the past six weeks and both MC.10.1 and XEC.2 have doubled over that same period.