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With one question mark, the most recent statistical data released over the past week constitutes further evidence that the moderate holiday spike in new COVID infection is receding after having proven less severe than those of previous years.
In this week’s composite chart, Ontario’s PCR COVID test positivity rate declined for the second consecutive week. New COVID-related hospitalizations have followed suit, as has ICU bed occupancy. The question mark is the latest analysis from the statisticians behind the more independent Canadian COVID-19 forecast, which predicts a higher severity in terms of new COVID infections that their report of last week. Specifically, their estimate of one in every 53 Ontarians currently being infected and therefore infections represents a significant worsening since their previous estimate. We will have to wait on next week’s data releases to get a better sense of whose estimate is the more accurate.
The most recent Public Health Agency of Canada analysis of currently circulating COVID variants, again shows relatively little change. While still dominant at 36% of all Canadian COVID infections, the XEC recombinant is now gradually losing “market share”, as is the second-place KP.3.1. While only 4% at moment, the newer XEK recombinant is the fastest-rising of the current pantheon. All are JN.1 derivatives, which means that the current booster shot should continue being reasonably effective.