The most recent statistical data released over the past week suggest that the moderate holiday spike in new COVID infection has been receding after having been less severe than those of previous years.
In this week’s composite chart, Ontario’s PCR COVID test positivity rate appears to have started its expected post-holiday decline, as have new COVID-relate hospitalizations. ICU bed occupancy, which tends to lag hospitalizations, is still rising but will hopefully soon follow suit. The more independent analysis by the statisticians behind the Canadian COVID-19 forecast does not yet reflect that decline. Their estimate of one in every 132 Ontarians being currently infected and therefore infections remains unchanged.
After an extended holiday hiatus, the US Centers for Disease control published its bi-weekly analysis of currently circulating COVID variants, showing relatively little change. The currently-dominant XEC recombinant has definitely peaked but still accounts for 47% of all new US infections. That’s unusually higher than Canada’s 31%. The most likely contender for replacing XEC is second-place LP.8.1, which is still only at 15% but has shot up by 242% over the past six weeks. Like essentially all of the current crop, both strains are JN.1 derivatives.