The most recent week’s worth of official COVID-related data is relatively unchanged from the previous week.
As you can see from this week’s composite chart, Ontario’s PCR COVID test positivity rate continued to decline from its winter holiday peak and is new roughly similar to last year at this time. New COVID-related hospitalizations have followed suit and ICU bed occupancy somewhat less so.
On the other hand, the more independent statisticians behind the Canadian COVID-19 forecast predict some worsening in the number of Canadians likely to be infected and hence infectious over the next couple of weeks, with Ontario somewhat worse than the national average and Quebec the current worst. Their most recent estimate is that one in every 36 Ontarians is currently infected, which suggests caution with respect to shopping in crowded supermarkets and the like without an N95 mask.
Turning to currently-circulating COVID variants, the latest US Centers for Disease Control estimates show unusually little change in recent weeks. The US “market share” of the still-dominant recombinant XEC strain has been essentially static at 40% of all new COVID infections. The main change is in the number 2 position, now occupied by JN.1 derivative LP.8.1, the incidence of which has tripled to 20% over the past 6 weeks. The only other rapidly-rising contender is the latest recombinant, XEC.4, which has quadrupled to 4% in that same period.