All statistical indicators now point to the severe seasonal surge in new COVID infections which began in last August and peaked on New Year’s Day having finally run its course. That conclusion is clearly supported by our weekly composite chart. Ontario COVID viral counts as measured in municipal wastewater PCR testing have dropped to levels last seen in early September. Positive PCR testing results among the minority of Ontarians who still qualify are down to roughly a third of their late November peak. Canadian COVID hospitalization rates have likewise fallen to just under half in that same period.
Most tellingly, the more independent COVID-19 Resources Canada Hazard Index of the number of Ontarians currently having active COVID infections is now down to one in every 52 Ontarians, which represents a huge improvement from the one-in-16 estimate of a few weeks ago.
For the first time, to my knowledge, we have objective Canadian research findings with respect to the efficacity of the current COVID booster shots in preventing infection. As reported in the Thursday Globe and Mail, the fall vaccine cut the risk of COVID-19 illness by about half overall, and by 67 per cent for those with a previous infection. That confirms that current vaccination in combination with residual immunity from one or more prior infections are complimentary in terms of the protection which they provide. It is also evidence for the Fall 2023 vaccine, which had been formulated against the then-dominant XBB family of variants, also doing a good job of protecting against the currently-dominant JN.1 family that currently accounts for some 96% of all new Canadian infections.