Based on what limited data remains available, there is very little change to report. The seasonal surge in new COVID infections which began in August has basically stabilized at levels below both our October peak and in comparison to last year at this time.
This week’s composite chart shows that Ontario’s PCR testing positivity rate is substantially unchanged over the most recent three-week period. As expected, Ontario COVID ICU occupancy rates over that period have been revised upwards to correct an apparent data glitch, but also remain stable in the short term. The more independent Canadian COVID-19 Hazard index is significantly worse for Ontario and therefore Canada, but that could well reflect those corrections in the Ontario data. Their estimate of the number of Ontarians currently infected and hence infectious (one in forty-one) hasn’t been updated over the past three weeks.
For whatever reason, Public Health Canada failed to update their “market share” estimates for the main currently-circulating COVID variants, which means that this week’s chart lags reality by about three weeks. We’ll get a much more up-to-date reading next week at this time when the US CDC issues its next biweekly estimate. My best guess is that the XEC recombinant strain will have further increased its dominance, perhaps crossing the 50% mark.