The unexpectedly good news this week on the COVID front is that the official statistics thus far show no obvious signs of the usual holiday surge in new infections.
As you can see from this week’s composite chart, the seasonal climb in Ontario PCR test positivity rates peaked in late September, declined through October and rose only very moderately through November and December. While COVID-caused ICU bed occupancy remained fairly constant over that period, the only disquieting trend was a sharp rise in COVID hospitalization into the holiday period. The more independent analysis by the statisticians behind the Canadian COVID-19 forecast shows a moderate reduction in their Hazard Index. They haven’t updated their most recent estimate of one in 70 Ontarians being infected and hence infectious.
Public Health Canada’s weekly report on the relative incidence of the currently-circulating COVID variants shows relatively little change. The currently-dominant XEC recombinant now accounts for 36% of all new infections. The relatively new fourth-place NP.1 variant amounts to little more than 6% but is the fastest growing, having increasing its Canadian “market share” nearly sevenfold over the past six weeks.