Not unexpectedly given the increased indoor social contacts and shopping associated with the holiday season, the latest COVID statistics suggest that infection rates in the half of December have climbed back to their October levels after having previously moderated from their October highs. The Ford Government’s typically short-sighted decision to terminate the early-warnings provided by PCR municipal wastewater testing means that the public will have no warning of a possible worsening holiday surge in new COVID infections until its too late to take precautions.
The Ontario’s PCR testing positivity rate graph included in this week’s composite chart is the nearest thing that we have remaining for an early-warning sign. It suggests a sharp rise which started in the beginning of December, one which could significantly worsen now that we have entered peak socialization/shopping season. That’s not yet reflected in COVID hospitalization and ICU occupancy statistics which, when the provincial data was corrected following an apparent reporting glitch, hadn’t actually dropped very much from their October seasonal highs. The more independent Canadian COVID-19 Hazard index has yet to update their monthly estimate of one in forty-one Ontarians infected and hence infectious.
Turning to the latest COVID variants, current US Centers for Disease Control estimates show an unusual churn in the “market shares” of the most prevalent strains. The XEC recombinant continues to increase its dominance at 45% of all new infections, with the previously-dominant KP3.1.1 still in second place but rapidly climbing. The third-place LP.8.1 represents only 8%, but has grown eight-fold over the past two months. XEK, another new JN.1-family recombinant, is currently only at 4% but emerged so quickly that it bears watching.