Canada-wide, new COVID infections are definitely on a seasonal rising trend as measured by what remains of municipal wastewater testing, but the level is only a third that of last year at this time. That is reflected in Ontario PCR test positivity rates which have crossed the 5% mark, compared to nearly 15% in August 2024. COVID hospitalizations have only recently begun to follow suit, and the ICU admissions rate has only just shown its first uptick. In general, all the signs thus far point to a much milder COVID season for Canada. The seasonal growth rate is significantly higher in the US.
The above is reflected in the estimates from the more independent statisticians at COVID-19 Resources Canada. Their current hazard index is moderate for every province except Alberta. They haven’t updated their most recent estimate of one in every 129 Ontarians being currently infected and therefore infectious.
Turning to trends in currently-circulating COVID variants, Public Health Canada now only reports bi-weekly and this is the off week. However, after a long absence, the Trump-beleaguered US Centers for Disease Control have resumed their COVID reporting. As you can see by the yellow bar in our composite chart, the new XFG variant is now clearly dominant, accounting for 78% of all new US infections (they lump XFG.3 together with its parent XFG). All competing variants are static or declining.