While the overall Canadian trend remains the beginning of the expected seasonal rise in new COVID infections as identified by municipal wastewater testing, it’s something of a jagged curve, with the most recent number being down from the previous week. As you can see from this composite chart, Ontario PCR test results show a steeper, more definitive rise, albeit at roughly half the level of last year at this time. As expected, Ontario COVID hospitalizations have only just begun to reflect the higher infection rate and ICU admissions have yet to follow suit.
The good news is that the independent statisticians at COVID-19 Resources Canada have resumed publishing after a month-long absence. I have long found their estimates of the proportion of our population currently infected by COVID (and therefore infectious) to be the most useful statistic upon which to base rational decisions as to whether or not I should take precautions like wearing an N95 mask when going to the supermarket or other crowded indoor spaces. Their estimate for Ontario is one in every 129 people being currently infected.
The most recent Public Health Canada report on currently-circulating COVID variants shows that the new recombinant XFG variant has continued to become ever more dominant. Unusually, XFG and its subsequent XFG.3 progeny appear to be almost equally infectious, together accounting for 70% of all new Canadian infections. The continuing moderate level of hospitalizations strongly suggests that the symptoms which they cause in their victims are no more severe than their immediate predecessors and that current booster shots continue to provide good protection.