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Official statistics published this past week are largely unchanged from those of the week prior, which is indicative of new COVID infections having mostly stabilized. Until and unless a new, significantly more immune-invasive variant emerges, the most likely scenario is a continuation of current infections rates through the spring and summer, before the next seasonal surge begins in the August timeframe.
For Ontario, the estimated municipal wastewater PCR viral counts displayed in this week’s composite chart have risen minutely over the past two weeks. Ontario PCR test positivity rates rose just slightly over that same period. The overall Canadian rate of COVID hospitalizations and ICU bed occupancy are essentially unchanged.
The more independent COVID-19 Resources Canada Hazard Index, which is updated only monthly, continues to estimate that one in every 178 Ontarians are currently infected and hence infectious. Those estimates provide best available basis for judging one’s risk when choosing whether or not to enter a crowded indoor space masked or maskless.
The most recent Centers for Disease Control data on the spread of new COVID variants in the USA continues to show the overwhelming dominance of the BA.2-derived JN.1 family, which accounts for 98% of all new infections. The fastest spreading of its progeny strains are JN.1.13 and JN.1.16, both of which have nearly tripled in that period.