The official COVID-related data published this past week are generally quite positive, suggesting that this year’s seasonal low in infection rates may be less than last year’s.
The most recent Ontario COVID PCR test positivity rates are continuing their seasonal decline and have fallen slightly below the 2024 low point, which occurred later in March. Test rates serve as an early indicator. COVID hospitalization rates and ICU bed occupancy are also continuing to fall and remain almost identical to those of last year at this time.
The more independent Canadian COVID-19 Resource Canada summary also shows moderate week-to-week improvement in infection rates nationally, with Ontario’s remaining the highest amongst the provinces. Their most recent estimate remains one in 50 Ontarians currently infected and hence infectious.
The latest US Centers for Disease Control analysis of currently-circulating COVID variants in that country shows the new-dominant LP.8.1strain to be continuing its rapid rise, from 38% last week to 47% today. The previously-dominant XEC strain meanwhile fell from 31% to only 26%. Both are JN.1 derivatives. While LP.8.1 is almost by definition more infectious, none of the many JN.1 derivatives show variability in symptom severity, which is a very good thing.