Contrary to what the statistical data last week showed, the updated numbers indicate that a moderate holiday spike in new COVID infection did occur, albeit not nearly as severe as in previous years.
As you can see from this week’s composite chart, the actual rise Ontario PCR test positivity rates was relatively modest but both COVID hospitalizations and ICU bed occupancy spiked. The good news is that spike was only half as severe as the previous year’s. The more independent analysis by the statisticians behind the Canadian COVID-19 forecast shows a further moderate reduction in their Hazard Index. Their most recent monthly estimate of the number of Ontarians being infected and hence infectious is down to one in every 132, the lowest in many months.
Public Health Canada’s weekly report on the relative incidence of the currently-circulating COVID variants again shows relatively little change. The currently-dominant XEC recombinant appears to have peaked and is now in decline, having dropped to just under 30% of all new infections. Its most likely replacement, the relatively new NP.1 strain, is now in third place with 11% “market share” but that represents a sixfold rise over the past six weeks. Essentially all of the most common circulating strains are JN.1 derivatives, which suggests that the current booster shot will remain effective over the next few months.