As shown in this most recent composite chart, both Canada-wide and Ontario rates of new COVID infection remain near their seasonal lows, which were much lower than those of last year at this time, but have over the past month again begun a very gradual but noticeable rise.
For Ontario, the rate of positive PCR test results reached its lowest point (only 2.1%) in mid-May and have since risen to 2.7%. It is worth nothing that is roughly a third of the same rate a year ago. The rates of COVID hospitalizations and ICU bed occupancy also show a comparable, very modest rise.
I normally alternate between US Centers for Disease Control and Public Health Canada data on the relative “market shares” of currently-circulating COVID variants in the two countries. This week, however, I have again included the Canadian data in our composite chart because it’s more interesting as well as more relevant. For the first time that I can remember, Canada appears to be following global pandemic trends more quickly than the USA (one might think that people from other countries are choosing to avoid travel to the US). The Canadian statistics have changed much more rapidly than usual. Despite the NB.1.8.1 variant’s very rapid May rise to dominance, it has already stalled at 34% and has been overtaken by the new XFG recombinant strain and its XFG.3 immediate progeny strain, which between them now account for 46% of new Canadian infections. We’ll see over the next few weeks whether and by much that increases the rate of new COVID infections.