While there were once again hardly any changes in Ontario COVID statistics released over the past week, there has been a big change in what’s circulating. While COVID infection rates are seasonal and we are in the midst of the annual low, the good news is that this low is lasting a lot longer than in previous years. Ontario’s PCR test positivity rate is unchanged from the previous week and its currently low COVID hospitalizations and ICU bed occupancy rates again dropped minutely lower.
The more independent Canadian COVID-19 Resource Canada COVID hazard index is in the process of being updated, so what is shown in our composite chart is a repeat of last week’s. They also haven’t updated their estimate of one in every 136 Ontarians currently being infected and hence infectious.
That said, Public Health Canada’s latest data shows a radical shift in the “market shares” of the currently-circulating COVID variants. The previously-dominant LP.8.1.1 has been utterly upstaged by the new NB.1.8.1 strain, which had been surging in Asia but had not yet appeared on the North American radar. As you can see in our composite chart, it already accounts for 70% of all new COVID infections. Since both NB.1.8.1 and LP.8.1.1 are JN.1 derivatives, we should hopefully not see much if any increase in symptom severity. But the sheer speed with which it displaced its predecessor implies that it is considerably more adept at evading existing immunity.
Ironically, given that our current infection rate is the lowest thus far in the pandemic, this summer’s expected seasonal rise could be higher this year because so few of us are bothering to get our booster shots when we become eligible. The currently-available boosters are monovalent and are formulated against JN.1, so should be effective. For my part, I’ve added getting my booster to my to-do list for next week.