The seasonal low in new COVID infections continued into the past week, with new COVID infections running at about half the rate of last year at this time. In fact, the 2.3% Ontario PCR test positivity rate has been essentially unchanged for the past six weeks, which is unprecedented thus far in the pandemic. Both Ontario COVID hospitalizations and ICU bed occupancy rates have likewise flattened out at roughly half last year’s rates.
The more independent Canadian COVID-19 Resource Canada COVID hazard index, which is based on excess-mortality calculations, is again slightly lower than last week for both Canada and Ontario. That said, their estimate of one in 138 Ontarians being currently infected and hence infectious is very slightly worse than last week’s.
Turning to the respective “market shares” of the currently circulating COVID variants, this is our week to report on the Canadian data from Public Health Canada. It confirms that the LP.8.1.1 variant remains the nearest to dominance with 39% of all new cases. That represents a continuing modest growth, from 35% from the previous week. What’s puzzling is the second-place “other” category, which is unusually high at more than 15%. Public Health Canada has yet to track the new XFC recombinant, which had as of last week meteorically shot up into second place in the US. It will be at least another week before we learn if it is continuing that rise in the US and perhaps here.