The past two weeks of data generally support the hypothesis that the pandemic is now very near its seasonal low, with the rate of new COVID infections already well below the 2024 low which it had reached in late March and early April of that year.
Looking at this week’s composite chart, the Ontario test positivity rate has been virtually flat these past two weeks, at approximately half of last year’s low. COVID hospitalizations and ICU bed occupancy have likewise bottomed out a roughly half of those a year ago. The only exception in terms of statistical analysis is the more independent Canadian COVID-19 Resource Canada, whose excess-mortality-based algorithm has Ontario and hence Canada somewhat higher than what they published last week. There has been no update to their estimate of one in every 140 Ontarians being currently infected and hence infectious.
Turning to trends in the mix of circulating COVID variants, Canada has somewhat caught up with US trends in that LP.8.1 is now the dominant strain in both nations, with XEC also in second place in both. That said, LP.8.1 has only a modest lead in Canada with a “market share” of only 24% compared to its utter US dominance at 69%. That unusual gap continues to suggest that the radically reduced rate of Canadians travelling in the US is the most likely explanation. Fortunately, there is no evidence that any of the currently circulating variants differ in terms of severity of symptoms.