The official COVID-related data published this past week are continuing to improve, suggesting that we have yet to reach our seasonal low for 2025. For comparison, last year’s low occurred just around this week in March.
The best remaining leading indicator for Ontario COVID infections remains the PCR test positivity rates for that very small proportion of our population which is still getting tested when symptomatic. The most recent Ontario COVID PCR test positivity rates remain just slightly below those of last year at this time. COVID hospitalization rates are likewise slightly below last year’s whereas ICU bed occupancy remains slightly higher. Death rates appear to be roughly similar. I choose not to include published death rates in these updates because the most recent weeks’ data tend to be misleading. Each week’s deaths are typically corrected upwards for weeks and even months thereafter due to slow reporting.
The more independent Canadian COVID-19 Resource Canada summary paints a less positive picture, with its national severity index higher rather than lower than that of a week ago. Ontario’s remains the highest amongst the provinces. Yet their most recent estimate of the number of Ontarian currently infected and hence infectious shows improvement at only one in every 112 people. I don’t have an explanation for that discrepancy.
Unusually, the latest Public Health Canada analysis of currently-circulating COVID variants in our country has sharply diverged from that of the US Centers for Disease Control. While the LP.8.1 strain has been increasing its dominance there, it is currently ranked third in Canada, where the recombinant XEC strain is still narrowly holding on to first place. Even more surprising, the original JN.1 variant from which essentially all currently-circulating strains derived has not only returned but trails XEC in Canada by less than one percentage point. The only explanation which comes to mind from this otherwise bizarre divergence is that so many Canadians are boycotting winter travel to US due to President Trump’s absurd attacks on our country that COVID isn’t being brought back across the border at anywhere near the normal frequency. If so, that would constitute a very encouraging sign of individual Canadians choosing to stand up for Canada!